Derby of ruin at home for the Cubs and the White Sox
LAS VEGAS — Chicago baseball fans can take some comfort knowing the Bay Area has been more offensive on its grounds than the Cubs and White Sox.
Those who bet blindly on the San Francisco Giants, until the All-Star break, lost 4.56 units, according to ats.io/mlb. But the pathetic Athletics lost an MLB-worst 18.84 units at RingCentral Coliseum.
That home hit combined with the wallet topped the 21.25 total units lost between the Cubs (17-29 at home, -10.95 units) and the Sox (19-25, -10.30). At -17.81 units, the Nationals also soiled their stadium.
Chicago owning two of those four double-digit culprits is shameful.
If he were a local, PlayUp USA’s Vegas-based betting chief Rex Beyers would never visit Wrigley Field or Guaranteed Rate Field without having a “decent sweat” — a big side or total bet — on the outcome.
“I definitely wouldn’t go for entertainment,” he says.
The Ohio native thrived fading or betting against both teams.
He blames the Cubs players, who last weekend dropped a lazy pop-up between first base and right field, with a “borderline dropout.” If they hadn’t won it all in 2016, he would have bet a lot that they wouldn’t claim a crown in his lifetime.
“Enjoy that one, I guess I say,” says Beyers, 45.
The Sox were 46-46 with a minus-14 point differential. FanGraphs projected the Twins (50-44, plus-28 differential) to win American League Central.
“[The White Sox] won’t be able to defeat this manager,” Beyers says of Tony La Russa. “And constantly silly or head-scratching plays [will relegate them to] outside once significant October baseball begins.
No MLB team has made more first-half profits, by 15 units, than the Orioles. The Yankees (8.1 units) delivered in the Bronx, as did the Rockies (6.8 units) in Denver.
We try to make sense of the first half to ensure the value of the second half.
Don Wallace, a loyal Houston reader, reminded me of some nuggets I passed around in my 2019 book, “Sports Betting for Winners.”
He had been following the workings of Chicago native Dennis Rhinevault, aka Van Smith in the tome, for decades. Dozens of beautiful notebooks record Rhinevault’s lifelong quest to win at sports betting.
On the night of Friday, July 15, Wallace aimed to bet heavy on the Astros and starting pitcher Justin Verlander on July 16, telling me, “I don’t care about the price!”
This action, at the Rhinevault, involved betting on a team in the top 10, according to ESPN’s power rankings, against a team in the bottom six after losing to the latter. On July 15, the Astros lost to the lowly Athletics.
Houston, a -360 favorite (risk $360 to win $100) that Saturday, won 5-0.
Wallace also repeated what legendary TV broadcaster Brent Musburger told me about the book.
“I’m a streak bettor,” Musburger said. “Win three times in a row, I bet you the next day. You take your profit as you do this, but streaks are the way to go in baseball.
That Friday, Wallace was also eager to continue supporting Seattle. After winning three, they had just beaten Texas for a ninth consecutive victory. As -143 favorites, the Mariners won on July 16 and again, as -131 favorites, on July 17.
The Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Astros, Mariners, Braves, Marlins and Dodgers – the elites of enduring success – are combined 117-42 (73.6%) after three consecutive triumphs , which includes stopping the losing streak.
Remember, take the profits as you go.
Doug “The Sheriff” Fitz, the retired Cleveland native cop who immersed himself in systems handicapping during his retirement in Vegas, got into a brawl trying to gain ground in baseball.
Chicago and Florida native professional bettor John Murges was ahead by a few hundred dollars, barely qualifying as a push.
“I’ve been berry, berry tough,” he says, mimicking Chico Escuela, comedian Garrett Morris’ character from the popular 1970s “Saturday Night Live” sketch who always trumpeted, “Baseball has been berry, berry good. for me.”
But Brooklyn-born Vegas handicapper Noah Parker, a four-figure bettor, reports success with some road teams, especially in extra innings.
Extra heats begin with a runner in second position. After nine innings, he will often bet live on the visiting team. In the final week of the first half, the road teams were 9-4 in extra innings.
Says Parker, “I adapted and adjusted.”
The Angels were 24-13 on May 15, then skyrocketed from 15 to 40. During that slump when Shohei Ohtani didn’t pitch, his team was 9-37.
And 23 of those losses were by at least two points, cashing the opponent’s tickets on the lucrative -1½ line.
The enemies in their own yards were 14-8, on the running line, against the Angels. For comparison, the Astros were -220 at home against the Angels on July 3, but Houston’s rush line was -110. Houston won 4-2.
When Ohtani doesn’t start, fade those poor angels.
ODDS AND ENDINGS
In total bets, the Mets and Astros away games combined are 57-37 under, a profit margin of over 11 units. Circle the Mets in Washington Aug. 1-3 and the Astros in a three-game series in Oakland starting Monday.
Finally, Baltimore, of course, racked up that awesome profit with plenty of underdog triumphs.
Long Island capper Tom Barton took a big chunk of those dividends and says Baltimore isn’t going away: “They have a stacked farm system, so the Orioles will be pretty good for a while.”