Apple Stocks: Profits Day Countdown Begins


Apple broth (((AAPL) – Get the report We close the month with the highest yields in 2021: + 8% at the start of the last trading day. But as the end of June approaches, Apple Maven is eager to prepare to analyze next month’s most important catalyst, earnings season.

As always, we cover every minute of income events through our live blog. Before that, let’s dive into the topic of the third trimester. Apple Maven begins by examining consensus expectations and past stock price behavior before and after the earnings date.

Figure 1: Earning season.

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What Wall Street expects

In the third quarter of 2021, Apple will have to face some unpleasant compositions. The pandemic has disrupted the company’s operations in some cases. But Apple still managed to manage an 11% growth in shipments amid growing demand for high-tech devices and digital services.

Despite last year’s double-digit revenue growth, on Wall Street, Cupertino saw a significant sales increase of 22% this time around (see table below). If achieved, it will lead to Apple’s second rate of growth over the years – the last quarter was by far the most impressive.

Apple has chosen not to provide a full third quarter forecast again due to the COVID unrest. However, CFO Luca Maestri provided his high-level expectations to help analysts’ estimates come down further.

  • Revenue is experiencing strong double-digit growth, but due to supply chain issues, the seasonal decline from March is expected to be larger than usual.
  • Gross margin from 41.5% to 42.5%;
  • Operating expenses of $ 11.1 billion to $ 11.3 billion.
  • Tax rate of 14.5%.

Figure 2: AAPL Revenue Details / Estimated Revenue.

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Apple shares above earnings

History is not always recurring, but it rhymes from time to time, which can be useful for looking at mid-price stocks before and after the date of gains. The following graphic shows three bars. (1) Pre-earnings, (2) Post-earnings, (3) Two-week median return for Apple stocks, any day.

Over the past 20 seasons of earnings, Apple’s stock price has surprisingly risen below par in the two weeks leading up to the earnings date. 1.1% against 1.9%. However, the range is wide, with a 10% profit and a -6% loss two quarters ago.

Two weeks after the gains, the AAPL rose again. The median gain is 4.6%. This seems incompatible with the traditional dynamic “buy rumors and sell news” movement. Perhaps Apple investors tend to be skeptical of results before earnings season, but feel more comfortable investing capital in stocks after the fact.

However, it should be noted that the range of post-income stock market results is very wide. An increase of 20% in two weeks, a loss of almost -14%. Therefore, volatility and uncertainty appear to be the norm for AAPL after the company submitted its quarterly financial results.

Figure 3: Median income for two weeks, income and non-income.

Figure 3: Median income for two weeks, income and non-income.

Twitter speaks

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(Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. The author may have one or more stocks listed in this report for a long time, and the article may contain affiliate links. These partnerships do not affect the edited content. Please support Apple Maven)


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